過去我們常聽到三個臭皮匠勝過一個諸葛亮,也就是說集合眾人的智慧可以得到更好的想法,而Science這一期就刊出由University College London團的的研究指出,廣為諮詢眾人的智慧確實可以做出更好的決定,但是必須是眾人必須有相當的智慧,否則會得到更為糟糕的決定。
原文節錄自:Science Maganize http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/329/5995/1081
Optimally Interacting Minds
In everyday life, many people believe that two heads are better than one. Our ability to solve problems together appears to be fundamental to the current dominance and future survival of the human species. But are two heads really better than one? We addressed this question in the context of a collective low-level perceptual decision-making task. For two observers of nearlyequal visual sensitivity, two heads were definitely better than one, provided they were given the opportunity to communicate freely, even in the absence of any feedback about decision outcomes. But for observers with very different visual sensitivities, two heads were actually worse than the better one. These seemingly discrepant patterns of group behavior can be explained by a model in which two heads are Bayes optimal under the assumption that individuals accurately communicate their level of confidence on every trial.